Delusive opinions

More and more analysts foreseen that oil prices will shrink just because consumers from the USA will use it less, dragging down the revenues of the companies and, consequently, making them cut speculative deals. The experts add that, even the energy usage rates do not plunge, the present charges drive to new sources´ development. I hope so, but I am not optimist about this based in three reasons.
First, once it is reached a energy usage level, it is not likely to reduce it unless by means of severe economic depression. Ok, the USA is in a recession, everybody knows, but nobody is saying it will be that bad, yet, and most economists say the World will pass throughout the year growing just a little bit slower than has done in the quinquennium.
Second, it is a myth to say the OECD members are turning more energy efficient annually. They are just importing more goods, hence using energy abroad.
Third, expecting the oil can be replaced by a new source in a short time is a wishful thinking. In most of the booming economy countries, petroleum is already a alternative source by coal and it will not be left behind as a supplier without a good and reliable substitute, which existing technology does not offer in the needed scale.
Then the consumption of oil is bound to increase rather reduce, pointing the prices up.